If you think it's odd that the Tampa Bay Rays, a day after they made a contender's trade for Nelson Cruz, would deal from their already thin big-league rotation by moving Rich Hill to the New York Mets, you're not alone. It caught me by surprise as well.
It's a trade that makes sense from the Mets' side, considering they're two injured starters down currently (Jacob deGrom and Joey Lucchesi) and have been in need of sixth starters frequently of late with several double-headers, as Hill improves their depth at the cost of only reliever Tommy Hunter and Class A catching prospect Matt Dyer. Hill should immediately slide into what was Lucceshi's former role as the Mets' fifth starter -- but call him their No. 3 or 4 for now, until Carlos Carrasco and/or Noah Syndergaard returns, if labels matter to you -- and in New York, he's less likely to be limited to the 70-80 pitch counts (average of 76.3) that he was in Tampa Bay. There's more opportunity for volume for Hill the Met, and that's a plus for fantasy matchup-seeking.
The left-hander had struggled of late, however, with a 5.40 ERA and 19.3% strikeout rate in his past seven starts, during which time his curveball didn't perform particularly well (.330 wOBA, compared to .269 for his career). Hill's 41 years of age, his injury history and the shortened 2020 could make him a workload worry from this point forward, but by going from Tropicana Field to Citi Field, he largely spins his wheels in terms of park factors and actually gets a slight upgrade in terms of the thump in his division rivals' lineups. That the National League still allows the pitcher to bat, even if it's less often with declining starters' pitch counts and therefore more pinch-hitting out of that slot, also works to Hill's benefit. I'll admit I'm not a fan; from a rankings basis I'd barely include him in my top 90 starters, but his matchups and streak-chasing prospects are good enough that you'd have to be pleased with his destination.
It's the Rays' side that seems to make no sense, but upon closer inspection actually does. Besides Hill's recent performance, the Rays love to mix-and-match the entirety of their rotation, and their remaining starters -- Josh Fleming, Shane McClanahan, Luis Patino, Michael Wacha and Ryan Yarbrough -- all fit that limited-pitch-count, maybe-they're-starters, maybe-they're-followers mold. It's perhaps a vote of confidence that Patino, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball (even if he has struggled with his control in the majors) is ready to occupy a regular role. Maybe it means the team is ready to test fellow top prospect Shane Baz, and maybe it means the team has more faith in Chris Archer's recovery from a forearm injury than expected.
Consider it opportunity for all of the above, and that's a great thing when you're talking about pitchers who are widely available in ESPN leagues, call one of the most pitching-friendly environments their home, and reside in one of the smartest organizations in the game as far as developing pitchers is concerned. I'm a big fan of McClanahan, Patino and Baz, with their 2021 fantasy potential estimated in that order, and would give each of them a 3-5 starting pitcher spot bump. McClanahan, especially, needs to be rostered in much more than the 30.8% of ESPN leagues that he is right now.
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July 24, 2021 at 12:53AM
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Fantasy baseball - Rich Hill trade creates big opportunity in Rays' rotation - ESPN
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